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Lok Sabha 2024: As the clock for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 is getting closer, the beats of the ruling party and the opposition are increasing. The political board has been laid and all the parties have started making their moves. In response to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the opposition has put up a tough challenge by forming the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (India).
These are the castes that will be affected
The castes that dominate in Hindi-speaking states, apart from the upper castes, are OBCs, STs and Dalits. If we look at the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got very less Dalit votes. That’s why this time also its focus will be less on the Dalit community. One thing is worth noting here that Bihar was the only state among the Hindi-speaking states where the BJP-led NDA got the maximum number of Dalit votes. However, all the credit for this goes to the Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) led by Ram Vilas Paswan and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Nitish has now left the BJP and joined the alliance of opposition parties India.
Apart from the upper castes, the NDA also got full support from OBCs and STs. However, in the assembly elections, the votes of these three castes were not received by the BJP as much as it was in the Lok Sabha. In the assembly elections, Congress got more OBC, SC-ST and Dalit votes than BJP. Some policies of BJP and Modi magic had changed the arithmetic of these votes in the Lok Sabha.
BJP dominance in Hindi-speaking states
Upper castes, OBCs and STs led the NDA to win 203 out of 225 seats in Hindi-speaking states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand under the leadership of BJP, according to a survey conducted by Lokniti-Central for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) agency after the last 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Keeping this success in mind, this time also these castes will prove to be a trump card for BJP. For which he has already started preparing.
These castes changed the equation in the elections in Madhya Pradesh
In the 2018 assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP got 58 percent of the upper caste votes. Whereas Congress got 33 percent and others got 9 percent. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 75 percent of the upper caste votes. He got a direct profit of 17 per cent. Whereas Congress got 20 percent and the rest went to the account of others.
In the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP got 48 percent of the OBC votes. Congress got 41 per cent and others got 11 per cent. And in the 2019 Lok Sabha, the BJP got 66 percent of the OBCs. Congress got 27 percent and others got 7 percent votes. In this way, BJP got a gain of 18 percent votes in a span of just one year. Similarly, in the 2018 assembly, the BJP got 33 percent of SC votes. While Congress got 49 percent and others got 18 percent. In comparison, the BJP got 38 per cent of SCs in the 2019 Lok Sabha.
On the other hand, Congress got 50 and others got 12 percent votes. In this way, BJP got the benefit of 5 percent and Congress got one percent votes. In the 2018 assembly, the BJP got 30 percent of the ST votes. Congress got 40 per cent and others got 30 per cent. In comparison, in 2019, the BJP got 54 per cent votes, the Congress 38 per cent and others 8 per cent. BJP had a big gain of 24 percent. In 2018, BJP got 15 per cent Muslim votes, Congress got 52 per cent and others got 33 per cent. Whereas in 2019 Lok Sabha, BJP got 33 percent and Congress got remaining 69 percent votes.
Jats had changed the picture in the Lok Sabha in Rajasthan
BJP, which lagged behind in the assembly elections in Rajasthan, got a big boost in the form of Jats. The credit for which also goes to the National Democratic Party of Hanuman Beniwal. Due to this, the Jat vote bank of NDA increased to 85 percent in Lok Sabha 2019 as compared to 2018 assembly elections. The NDA had gained 59 per cent votes here in one year. That is because the BJP got only 26 percent of the Jat votes here in the assembly elections. In the 2018 assembly elections, BJP got 53 percent of Rajput votes, Congress got 35 percent and others 12 percent.
2018 OBC votes were 46 per cent in BJP’s account, 38 per cent for Congress and 16 per cent for others. Whereas in 2019 Lok Sabha, BJP got 72 percent of OBC votes, Congress got 23 and others just 5 percent. Similarly, in the 2018 assembly, SC votes were 34 per cent for BJP, 39 per cent for Congress and 27 per cent for others. Whereas in 2019 Lok Sabha, BJP got 39 percent, Congress 54 and others 7 percent. Here in the 2018 assembly elections, ST votes were 40 per cent for BJP, 41 for Congress and 19 per cent for others. In comparison, in the 2019 Lok Sabha, the BJP got 55 per cent ST votes, Congress 38 and others 7 per cent.
Brahmins, Vaishyas, Jats and Rajputs supported BJP in UP
In Uttar Pradesh along with upper castes, other castes also openly supported BJP. Due to which NDA had captured 64 out of 80 seats in the state. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 82 percent of the Brahmin votes. On the other hand, the Congress got only 6 percent and the Grand Alliance also got 6 percent votes. BJP also got the support of Rajputs. BJP got 89 percent Rajput votes.
NDA got the benefit of Nitish and Paswan in Bihar
Nitish Kumar and Ram Bilas Paswan were with NDA in Bihar in the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Whose full benefit was given to NDA. This time Nitish is in the opposition camp of BJP. How much effect this will have on the vote cast, only the upcoming election results will be able to tell. If we look at the caste votes, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA got 65 percent votes of the upper castes. Whereas UPA got 5 percent and others got 30 percent votes. On the other hand, Yadav votes got 21 percent for NDA and 55 percent for UPA and 24 percent for others. The NDA got 70 percent of the Kurmi votes. Full credit for this goes to Sushasan Babu i.e. Nitish Kumar, who joined NDA. The UPA got only 7 percent of the Kurmi votes and 23 percent votes went to others. SC got 76 votes for NDA, 5 for UPA and 19 percent for others.
The NDA benefited from the division of tribals in Jharkhand
The NDA got a lot of benefit from the division of tribal voters in Jharkhand. Here the Congress formed an alliance with the Grand Alliance, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and JVM and RJD. Despite this, the NDA performed well here. Tribal voters were divided into Hindu and Christian groups. Out of which 65 percent Hindu tribals voted for NDA and 29 percent voted for UPA. On the other hand, Christian tribals voted 33 percent for the NDA and 56 percent in favor of the UPA. BJP has a huge advantage over Congress here.
BJP’s performance in Chhattisgarh surprised
According to the survey agency Central for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), BJP’s performance in Chhattisgarh was better than expected. Here youth, women and Dalits responded better to BJP than Congress. However, here the definite figures could not be made available to the agency.
Modi magic increased vote bank of BJP in Uttarakhand
as was expected before the Lok Sabha elections. The performance of BJP in Uttarakhand remained more or less the same. The figures of caste vote bank were not clearly found. However, by winning all the five seats, the BJP had swept away its rivals. BJP got a total of 60.7 percent votes here. These votes were 5 percent more than the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. From this point of view, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections In 2024, BJP can repeat its performance. At present, caste equations do not matter much in Uttarakhand.
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Narendra Modi
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