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Lok Sabha Election 2024: The parties and the opposition are fully engaged in the preparations for the possible Lok Sabha elections in April-May next year. This time the opposition has formed the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) to counter the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Whose three meetings have also been held. This time there will not be a UPA vs NDA contest, but according to Mamta Banerjee, this time NDA will be called “India”. Will win On the other hand, looking at the last two elections, Hindi speaking states will become a big challenge for INDIA.
These states will become “India” Trouble: Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, MK Stalin and K.K. By being with Chandrasekhar Rao “India” Looks strong. Even after this, the Hindi-speaking states with more Lok Sabha seats form the central government, except for Nitish Kumar, no other leader or his party has even 5 percent influence, we are talking about Uttar Pradesh with 80 seats, Bihar with 40 seats, Madhya Pradesh with 29 seats, Rajasthan with 25 seats, Jharkhand with 14 seats, Chhattisgarh with 11 seats and Uttarakhand with 5 seats. BJP has hoisted the flag in all these states on the strength of PM Modi. Even BJP made a dent in Telangana and won 4 seats in the last election.
BJP got seats and vote percentage in these states: If we look at the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, then in the above Hindi-speaking states, BJP single-handedly won 156 seats out of total 204 seats. Barring Bihar, anywhere the vote percentage of BJP has been 50 or more. NDA does not have alliance partners in this. Nitish Kumar’s JDU won 16 seats in Bihar, while Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti Party won 6 seats. Apna Dal got 2 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
Compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the performance of BJP has improved both in terms of seats and vote percentage. Yes, there was a decline in seats in Uttar Pradesh as compared to 2014. In 2014, BJP got 71 seats, while in 2019 it got 62. BJP suffered a loss of 9 seats.
Many parties do not have a single seat in the alliance: A total of 26 parties are included in the India alliance. In view of this, the BJP-led NDA has also increased the number of constituents to 38. However, both India and the NDA also include several parties that do not have a single Lok Sabha seat.
There are 5 such parties included in the India Alliance which do not have a single MP. According to TMC MP Derek O’Brien, out of 30 parties called by the NDA in Delhi for the meeting, there were 8 such that do not have a single MP. Apart from this, there were 9 parties which have only one MP, while three parties have only 2 MPs in the lower house. Despite this, being his vote bank in his area, he has been included in the alliance.
Mamata’s power is limited to Bengal: Even after the arrival of Mamta and Nitish, the effect of these two parties JDU and Trinamool Congress (TMC) is not visible on Hindi speaking states. All the power of Mamta Banerjee is limited to West Bengal only. In that also BJP Lok Sabha elections, more than 40 percent vote bank was dented. It is a different matter that the vote bank of Mamta’s TMC had reached 51 percent in the panchayat elections, which is a record. Mamata Banerjee’s party TMC got only 24 out of 42 seats in the last Lok Sabha election, while BJP got 18.
Chirag, Jitan Ram and Mukesh Sahni will spoil Nitish’s math: Nitish has maximum hold on Kurmi votes. Which is about 16 percent. At the same time, in Uttar Pradesh this vote is close to 6 percent. Talking about NDA, Chirag Paswan has a substantial Paswan vote bank of 7%. Apart from this, 5 percent vote of Mallah has also tilted towards NDA due to Mukesh Sahni. Former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi can also get the benefit of 2-3 percent votes by joining hands with the NDA. In this way, these three together can spoil the arithmetic of seats and vote bank of Nitish Kumar. Since all the politics of Bihar is based on caste, therefore the camel can sit on any side.
Read also: Lok Sabha Election: Can 2024 Ticket of veteran BJP leaders be cut before Lok Sabha elections
t) Mamta Banerjee
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