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After the Uttarakhand disaster of 2013, there hasn’t been a single year without at least one dangerous spell of rain. Every year large scale rains cause floods, destruction and in most cases heavy losses, people also lose their lives. This year too, in the last two days, there have been incidents of heavy rains in Kashmir, Chennai, Bengaluru, Pune, Mumbai, Gurgaon, Kerala, Assam, Bihar and many other states. The havoc of rain and flood is still going on in many places.
These are exactly the kind of incidents that scientists have been warning for many years. Scientists have been warning for the last several years that in the coming times, we will have to face sudden changes in the weather (sudden clouds or sudden sunshine). The current heavy rains in northern India are a part of this trend. Even though this is the heaviest rain ever in 20 to 25 years, continuous and torrential rains are not happening for the first time. In the last several years, many states of the country have faced dangerous and incessant rains.
Different states have been hit by heavy rains
Bengaluru floods every year because of heavy rains accompanied by water-logging. There is no arrangement to divert the flow.
Srinagar experienced dangerous floods in 2014. In September that year, it rained so dangerously in just four days that the Jhelum River was inundated.
Kerala receives dangerous rainfall every year. In 2018, this rain had created a threat on a large scale. Uttarakhand disaster is also the scariest example of such danger. Since then, the country is continuously facing the brunt of heavy rains every year, although scientists have warned that the incidents of heavy rains will increase with heat in the coming years. Experts say that the increase in the number of heavy rain events in many parts of the country is directly linked to climate change.
It may be known that on July 10, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab. There is a possibility of heavy rains in Haryana, Rajasthan. There is a possibility of heavy rains in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh on July 11.
Not only India, other countries are also facing the brunt of the dangerous rains. Landslides caused by torrential rains in western Japan. In which one person died and three people are missing. Let us tell you that the authorities had asked thousands of people to leave their homes in view of the danger of more landslides and floods. Can The question is what is the connection between this rain and climate change. Apart from climate change, humans are also responsible for this rain.
In April, the India Meteorological Department made two important predictions for the upcoming monsoon. An El Niño condition – in which abnormally warm sea surface waters could cause less rainfall. According to the India Meteorological Department, there was a possibility of El-Nino developing during the monsoon. Second, despite these conditions, the monsoon "General" Will remain, in which more rain is expected in the South Peninsula. While normal or below normal rainfall was expected over North-West India.
However, by the end of June the situation on the ground looked very different from these forecasts. The geographical distribution of rain was contrary to the forecast. Northwest India saw 42% excess rainfall in June, while the southern peninsula received 45% less rainfall than normal, with a 6% deficit in central India and an 18% deficit in east and northeast India. . Currently, torrential rains are continuing in North India.
Is Cyclone Biparjoy responsible for this rain
Seeing it was kind of hot, it did not seem that it would rain so heavily. According to the IMD, heavy rains were expected in June itself, but due to the formation of Cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea, the long-term forecast went awry. As the cyclone intensified in the Arabian Sea in early June, it carried with it moisture that could strengthen the monsoon. As a result, monsoon could not come on 11th June. Let us tell you that The normal arrival date is June 11.
The cyclone dissipated on June 19, but its remnants remained in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Because of this, monsoon winds came in the Bay of Bengal. Due to which there was a lot of rain in Delhi.
Scientists are telling the reason for this to climate change. According to the news published in The Scroll, Raghu Murtugude, an earth scientist and professor at the University of Maryland, said, "The Arabian Sea has been warming since January and the current rains have become the longest ever. Due to climate change, weather events like Biparjoy are increasing. These are affecting the monsoon.
Rains falling due to collision of two winds
According to the news published in The Scroll, Indian School of Business Anjal Prakash, clinical associate professor (research) and director of research at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, said, "Climate change has thrown off the traditional monsoon pattern, causing changes in temperature, air humidity and wind patterns. Winds are responsible for the devastation caused by heavy rains in North India. The first is the change in monsoon winds and the second is western disturbance.
The reason for the disaster in Kedarnath in the year 2013 was also attributed to this. Experts have also warned about this. In which it has been said that the climate is changing continuously and the earth is getting warmer. Due to which the condition of excess rainfall and floods can be created worldwide.
According to the news of The Scroll, Prakash, author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, said that the changes in the winds have changed the traditional monsoon pattern. put an end to This has made it challenging to accurately forecast the monsoon pattern in a few months. This makes it more challenging to prepare in advance and reduce the risk of these disasters.
Experts have described the devastating floods in parts of northern India over the past two days as ‘dangerous’ winds. ‘ Seeing by connecting with the meeting. They believe that due to the combination of monsoon winds and western disturbances, conditions are being created again like the ones that were created in 2013 during the Uttarakhand floods. There is an increased chance of heavy rains and floods. Due to the combination of these winds, there has been havoc in the rivers flowing above the danger mark in North India, especially Manali in Himachal Pradesh.
Two types of weather systems are active in North India for the last two days.
According to the news published in Outlook, IMD chief Mrityunjay Mohapatra Said ‘due to western disturbance, a trough line was formed from Rajasthan to North Arabian Sea. At the same time, due to the strong condition of the monsoon, winds from the Bay of Bengal were also reaching north. There was a confluence of these two systems, and its effect was seen around Jammu and Kashmir on Saturday and Himachal Pradesh on Sunday. These regions received moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, resulting in extremely heavy rains.
He said such a meeting between the two weather systems is not unusual. This association has been associated with extreme weather events, especially in the hills of North-West India.
In mid-June of 2013, a Western Disturbance caused by a low pressure coming from the Bay of Bengal side absorbed moisture. As a result, not only did the monsoon cover the entire country in record time (by June 16), but it also resulted in a cloudburst-like event in Kedarnath.
Why do these winds meet
Kieran MR Hunt of UK’s University of Reading recently wrote a research on the dangerous union of two winds in India, according to him the reason for these confluences is the ever-increasing heat, he also It was written that in the coming times, this meeting of winds can be seen in the countries which are facing the heat wave. Due to this, the danger of sudden heavy rain will also arise. Because these winds hit the hills and rise very fast causing heavy rain’.
So can’t stop it
Hunt Research wrote that ‘it is difficult to say whether (such a meeting) the frequency will go up or down, as there is no clear trend. However, we can be fairly certain that when this union occurs it will bring extreme rainfall and Horrible floods do occur.
How responsible are humans for heavy rains
Scientists believe that human-caused global warming is responsible for this. This is because climate change is supercharging the evaporation process of the water cycle. Due to this, the pattern of rain is getting disturbed.
According to the scientist, as the air heats up, there is more water vapour. That is, more water evaporates from the soil, plants, oceans and waterways – it becomes vapor. Excess water vapor means water is getting ready for heavy rain.
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