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The biggest highlight of the Lok Sabha elections to be held in the year 2024 will be the opposition parties uniting in the field against the BJP. The foundation of this unity was laid on the initiative of the Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, but gradually Congress, AAP and other big parties got involved and the clan kept on growing.
Now today and tomorrow i.e. on July 17-18 there will be a second meeting of this opposition unity. Everyone’s eyes are fixed on these two-day meeting, because the formula to fight against BJP will be decided in these two days.
The biggest difference in the opposition unity in the Patna meeting is that this time while uncle Sharad Pawar will be a part of the Bengaluru meeting of the opposition, his nephew Ajit Pawar will attend the Delhi meeting of the NDA. Exactly Apna Dal’s president Anupriya Patel will attend the meeting to be held on July 18, while the same party’s other group’s president and Anupriya’s mother Krishna Patel will attend the Bengaluru meeting. Apart from this, Nationalist Congress Working President Praful Patel, who attended the Patna meeting, will now attend the NDA meeting.
In such a situation, the question arises that before the second meeting of opposition unity, in which states the caste equation has been changed by the NDA and how much damage can it cause to the opposition?
First let us know which are the 6 parties joining NDA
Many parties that attended the Patna meeting have joined hands with the NDA before the second meeting. After which BJP has got new allies in these three states of Maharashtra, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. There were already 24 parties in the NDA. Now after the addition of 6 new parties, the number of parties in this party has increased to 30. The names of these new 6 parties are Ajit faction’s NCP, LJP Ram Vilas, JDU’s ally Hindustan Awam Morcha, RLSP (Upendra Kushwaha), VIP (Mukesh Sahni) and Subhaspa (Omprakash Rajbhar).
Before these parties, these 24 parties were included in NDA
Shiv Sena Shinde faction, AIADMK, NPP, NDPP, JJP, SKM, BPP, IMKMK, ITFT, AJSU, MNF, Tamil Maanila Congress, PMK, Apna Dal S, MGPS, AGP, LJP, Nishad Party, UPPL, All India NR Congress Janasena of Puducherry, Akali Dal Dhidsa, RPI and Pawan Kalyan.
BJP has changed the caste equation of these states by forming alliance?
32 Lok Sabha seats of Uttar Pradesh will be affected: Om Prakash Rajbhar, who is considered a big face among OBC leaders, joined the NDA last Saturday. Rajbhar’s joining the NDA just before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will further strengthen the BJP’s election campaign.
Actually, before this election, it is very important for BJP to make inroads among the backward castes in the Hindi heartland because the opposition has continuously surrounded the BJP by raising many issues including the OBC census. While the central government is still silent on the demand of census of other backward classes.
In such a situation, Om Prakash Rajbhar claims his own influence on about 32 Lok Sabha seats in Purvanchal of UP and if Subhaspa enters the fray with BJP, then NDA will be able to maintain its political base strong in Purvanchal. Let us inform that in the year 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the Subhaspa Bharatiya Janata Party entered the fray together. At that time Rajbhar’s party fielded its candidates on 6 seats and won 4 seats.
Talking about the assembly elections held in the year 2022, the Subhaspa had entered the fray in alliance with the Samajwadi Party and fielded its candidates on a total of 18 seats. However, this time they could get only 6 seats.
4 leaders in Bihar with NDA, caste equation will change
LJP (Chirag Paswan): Former Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has been invited to the NDA meeting to be held on July. Chirag Paswan joining NDA is almost certain. This party has a strong mass base on Dalit seats in Bihar. In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, LJP won 6 seats in Bihar on its own and also helped BJP in 6-7 seats.
LJP has strong mass base in Khagaria, Madhepura, Vaishali, Madhubani, Begusarai, Jamui, Samastipur and Bettiah. With the help of regional leaders, this party has also created its vote bank in Jehanabad, Buxar and Siwan. LJP’s core voter is Paswan, whose population in Bihar is around 4 to 5 percent.
Upendra Kushwaha: Former Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha has formed Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal, separating himself from JDU a few days back. Upendra Kushwaha is known as the biggest leader of the Kushwaha caste in Bihar. His hold is strong in Banka, Madhubani, Ara, Rohtas and Samastipur. Kushwaha contested in alliance with the BJP and got 3 percent of the vote.
Jitan Ram Manjhi: Former Bihar Chief Minister and HAM (Se) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has also been called in the meeting to be held on July 18. Jitan Ram Manjhi formed Hum (Se) in the year 2015. Manjhi’s political dominance is in Jamui, Aurangabad and Sasaram. In the 2015 elections, Manjhi got 2 percent of the party’s votes. Apart from this, Manjhi is the biggest leader of the Musahar community in Bihar. According to Jitan Ram Manjhi, the population of Musahar castes in Bihar is about 55 lakhs. However, it is less than 30 lakh in the official figure.
Mukesh Sahni: NDA wants to bring Mukesh Sahni along with it. Sahni has entered the fray in the year 2020 in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party. He is one of the prominent leaders of the Nishad community of Bihar. According to Mukesh Sahni, the population of all the sub-castes of the Nishad community in Bihar is around 14 percent. Apart from this, Mukesh Sahni’s vote bank is in Madhubani, Khagaria, Muzaffarpur, Darbhanga and Samastipur.
BJP is taking precautions in these three states
The Bharatiya Janata Party has so far managed to bring regional parties along with it by making a dent in the opposition camp in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, but the same party is faltering in Andhra Pradesh and Punjab.  ;
Andhra Pradesh: Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh left the NDA in the year 2018. Although Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP lost the assembly elections held in the year 2019 after leaving the NDA, now this party wants to return to the NDA. Chandrababu Naidu had also met Amit Shah and JP Nadda in the first week of June this year but does not want the VSRCP to go into the opposition camp due to its alliance with the BJP.
Punjab: In the year 2020, during the farmer’s movement in Punjab, Sukhbir Singh Badal’s Akali Dal separated itself from the NDA. But the Akali Dal was defeated in the assembly elections held in the year 2022 and now this party wants to join hands with the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. If sources are to be believed, this time the BJP wants to include Akali Dal Dhidsa instead of Akali Dal. Party strategists believe that Akali Dal’s old influence among Sikhs has ended.
Now the matter of those big parties which are not with anyone
Lok Sabha elections, some parties are becoming a part of the opposition unity, while some parties are trying to unite with the NDA. But there are some big parties which are neither part of the NDA nor the opposition unity. Those big parties include BJD of Odisha, YSR Congress of Andhra Pradesh, BSP, Akali Dal, Telugu Desam Party and BRS. With whom these parties will support, it has not been revealed.
In this too, apart from BRS, the 6 parties (BJD, YSR, JD(S), BSP, Akali Dal, TDP) supported the Bharatiya Janata Party on the issue of the opening of the Parliament. Parties currently have more than 50 MPs in the Lok Sabha. It is expected that these parties may open their cards after the election results.
Om Prakash Rajbhar in nda
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